FX Report: 15th - 19th June 2025
Buy Side Target
1.3770
Sell Side Target
1.3370
Current Price
1.3550

We are witnessing a neutral phase in the market between the regions of 1.3600 and 1.3400 as anticipated last week. With no clear control in the market, it is wise to stay out of the market if strategy doesn't align with the market conditions. Our targets and regions remain the same as last week, bullish to 1.3770 and bearish to 1.3370.
United Kingdom: Inflation Holds, BoE Decision Looms, Fiscal Pressures Build
UK Inflation Remains Stubborn: UK inflation data for May shows headline CPI at 3.4%, down slightly from April’s 3.5%. Core and services inflation both ease modestly, with services inflation at 4.7%, helped by lower transport costs. However, food prices continue to rise, and markets remain wary about lingering price pressures.
BoE Poised to Hold Rates: The Bank of England is widely expected to keep the base rate at 4.25% at its June 19 meeting. A 6–3 split vote is anticipated, with some members likely favoring cuts, but Governor Andrew Bailey signals a cautious tone, suggesting that rate cuts remain possible but not imminent. Markets interpret this as a hawkish hold.
Fiscal Stress and Geopolitical Headwinds: Public sector borrowing remains elevated, while infrastructure projects like HS2 face delays, reflecting budget constraints. Simultaneously, ongoing military and foreign aid commitments, particularly regarding Ukraine, amplify fiscal pressure. Energy markets respond to renewed tensions in the Middle East, pushing up oil prices and complicating the inflation outlook.
United States: Inflation Cools, Fed in Focus, Dollar Softens
U.S. Inflation Comes in Soft: The May U.S. CPI report shows headline inflation rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, coming in softer than forecast. Core inflation slows to 2.8%, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year.
Producer Prices Echo Disinflation Trend: The U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) also surprises to the downside, showing muted price pressure across manufacturing and services. This aligns with Fed messaging and adds to the case for a policy pivot by the fall.
Dollar Slides on Risk-On Sentiment: Global risk appetite improves amid a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and falling oil prices boost equities. The U.S. dollar weakens across major pairs as investors move into risk-sensitive assets. The pound benefits from this shift, particularly as the BoE maintains a more hawkish stance than the
Last FX Report: 9th - 12th June 2025

Buy Side Target
1.3770
Sell Side Target
1.3370
Current Price
1.3530
Market Outcome
Neutral
As outlined, we continued to see a clear halt in bullish momentum on GBP/USD with failures to break above 1.3600. The market entered a neutral phase, giving no control to buyers or sellers, our traders profited from short-term intraday buy and sell opportunities presented using our proprietary theories and strategies.
*Contracts for difference (CFDs) are complicated financial contracts based on leverage, which can possibly result in huge fluctuations in profits or losses. Therefore, it is essential to study and understand CFDs thoroughly before embarking on investment. You should at the same time stay conscious and ready yourself for the potential risk of losing a part or your whole capital. This outlook is non-financial advice, you should consult with your personal financial advisor before making any investment decisions.