FX Report: 7th - 10th July 2025
Buy Side Target
1.3830
Sell Side Target
1.3500
Current Price
1.3640
The bullish momentum from the last couple of weeks on GBPUSD has stalled, with a short-term bearish direction being established, we aim to capitalise on short-term opportunities until we are back at our desired price ranges. We may see price reverse once 1.3500 has been achieved for our mid-term target on the downside. Our mid-term bullish target stands at 1.3830.
United Kingdom: Pound Reacts to Economic Data and Tariff Risk
Sterling Softens Amid Weaker Data and Tariff Uncertainty: The pound slips around 0.3%, trading near $1.3601, as markets respond to disappointing UK economic data and growing concerns about U.S. tariff moves. Investors remain cautious over the potential impact on trade and growth.
Pound Holds Gains Despite Dollar Weakness: Even with softer domestic data, sterling continues its recent upward momentum against the dollar. It trades in the $1.3610–$1.3640 range as investors focus on dollar weakness rather than strong UK fundamentals.
United States: Dollar Under Pressure from Fed Outlook and Trade Concerns
Dollar Trades Near Multi-Year Lows: The U.S. dollar sits near 3½-year lows against major currencies, including the pound. Traders price in significant rate cuts amid speculation that President Trump may appoint a more dovish Fed chair. The dollar index has already fallen over 10% year-to-date.
Tariff Deadline Heightens Market Risk: Markets remain on edge ahead of Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. Uncertainty about potential new tariffs adds to FX volatility, as negotiations with countries like Japan and India hang in the balance.
Fed Adopts Wait-and-See Stance: Fed Chair Powell maintains a cautious approach, signaling the Fed will assess the economic impact of tariffs before deciding on rates. Markets expect higher chances of rate cuts, weighing on the dollar.
Last FX Report: 30th June - 3rd July 2025
Buy Side Target
1.3900
Sell Side Target
1.3500
Current Price
1.3713
Market Outcome
Bearish
The market sold off from our mid-term target of 1.3770, with a shift in market direction, our traders were able to capitalise on short-term selling opportunities presented by our proprietary theories and strategies.
*Contracts for difference (CFDs) are complicated financial contracts based on leverage, which can possibly result in huge fluctuations in profits or losses. Therefore, it is essential to study and understand CFDs thoroughly before embarking on investment. You should at the same time stay conscious and ready yourself for the potential risk of losing a part or your whole capital. This outlook is non-financial advice, you should consult with your personal financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
How we traded this outlook:
